For newer writers trying to make a living from our stories, times are challenging in Romanceland. Prices have dropped. The number of books sold per title has decreased. The marketing required to be noticed has increased.
There’s been quite a bit of finger pointing, folks assigning blame. Being a business gal, I have a different perspective on events. Having already shared this with a few writers and bloggers, I want to talk about this here, hoping you’ll add your insights (in the comments).
Note: I don’t have any insider information. This is based on my observations only, as a writer and a reader. I could be totally in outer space (though my predictions have come true thus far) but I’ve seen these same trends in other industries (like music and soft drinks and…well…almost every other industry).
The Ideal Publishing Environment
The ideal business environment has supply (roughly) equaling demand. The number of books written would equal the number of books readers buy. Readers would pay a price they could afford, a price that allowed writers to make good livings.
To have an ideal business environment (or approach one), there must be barriers to entry. As we only need to produce (roughly) the number of books readers buy, we only need a certain number of writers. There must be something in place that blocks everyone in the market from becoming a writer.
The Past
Years ago, before the self-publishing phenomenon, the biggest barrier to entry was the bookseller. Some people think it was the publisher. It wasn’t. The booksellers only wanted to deal with publishers. They didn’t want writers to approach them directly, didn’t want to deal with thousands of individuals, to have these strangers touching their systems. They preferred to work with other companies, with publishers.
(There were other factors and other barriers to entry but this is the one that has affected the change we’re struggling with today. This simplification of the past is intentional.)
Publishers, with the booksellers, set prices they perceived as optimal. The selling price multiplied by the number of books sold resulted in the greatest profit for the booksellers, the publishers and the writers. The publishers, with the booksellers, also restricted the number of books they contracted from writers. The bookseller only had shelf room for X number of books. Publishers bought (roughly) X number of books.
Yes, there were a few brave independents, writers who self-published, but small print runs of books were costly. As writers tried to recoup their costs, the prices on these books were often high. And many booksellers wouldn’t stock these books. They had enough books from the larger publishers.
Change Happens
This past might seem ideal. It wasn’t. Publishers were producing books they THOUGHT readers wanted, not books readers truly wanted. Readers were frustrated with selection. Writers were frustrated with having their stories blocked.
And healthy industries change. They have to, to stay relevant. In publishing, eBooks were invented. Writers no longer had to print their stories. With this huge cost eliminated, they could afford to offer their books directly to readers.
Booksellers, new upstarts like Smashwords and Amazon, recognized this trend. They created systems that allowed them to easily deal with writers directly, to allow everyone to become a publisher.
There were now no significant barriers to entry. EVERYONE could publish a book, could have their books be available for sale. For a short stretch of time, there was a honeymoon period. The first brave self-publishing writers could drop the prices of their books by a dollar and readers would buy these unknowns. Self-published writers offered a wider variety of stories and they offered them at price points readers had never seen.
I, as a reader, was giddy with the selection, trying genres and themes I’d never read. I was NOT reading more books. I read a book a day before self-publishing became popular. I read a book a day after self-publishing became popular. I was merely buying books directly from writers, rather than buying them from the large publishers.
The large publishers and the booksellers who didn’t offer the self-publishing option saw their number of books sold decrease. Selling price multiplied by the number of books sold equals income. The number of books sold decreased. As a businesswoman, I would immediately consider increasing the selling price to offset this decrease, so the income remains the same.
Some publishers did exactly this.
It didn’t work.
Why?
One reason is prices are sticky upward. Readers love it when prices fall. They don’t like it when prices increase and they react to these price increases by buying fewer books.
Another reason is readers now had an almost unlimited supply of books. As more and more stories were published, readers couldn’t keep up. They couldn’t read all of the books being published. Supply exceeded demand.
Writers and publishers dropped the prices to snag the attention of readers, to convince readers to buy and read THEIR books. This worked for a little while until other writers followed suit, lowering their prices also. Writers and publishers dropped the prices again. Other writers matched these lower prices.
Eventually, prices reached zero. It costs money for eBooks to be produced. Writers also need to pay their bills. But writers justified giving their books away as a means to gain loyal readers.
The Present
This tactic no longer works. There are now so many free romance novels offered, that free alone won’t convince readers to try a new-to-them writer.
Some writers invest time or money into marketing. This means that, yes, some writers are PAYING to give their books away.
Established writers don’t have this issue (though they have seen the impact of free books). They have a reader base that promotes their books for free, that will vouch for the writer’s quality of stories. I will happily pay for a Lisa Kleypas historical because I know I’ll receive a great, entertaining story. I’m not as willing to pay for a complete unknown… unless a reading buddy recommends the writer.
But no one is recommending many of these newer writers because there are thousands of them, all wanting readers and reviewers and bloggers to read their books for free.
The Future – My Predictions
Free Is Here To Stay
I don’t foresee that the supply of free books will ever end. There will always be newer writers willing to give their books away. Not everyone views writing as a career (and this isn’t necessarily a bad thing). Even if the supply of free books stopped tomorrow, there are still enough free romances currently offered to keep any reader busy for… well… for her entire life (and the lives of her kids and grandkids and…).
There Will Be Resistance To Not Free
Prices, as I mentioned, are sticky upward. It will be more and more difficult for writers and publishers to increase prices from the starting point of free. My 100 page novellas at Ellora’s Cave sold for $5.00. My 200 page novellas at Avon, a large New York publisher, now sell for 99 cents. Yeah, ouch. I have to offer double the length of story and sell five times as many copies of my books merely to have the same sales (sales, not profit, because I now also have to advertise my books more).
Physical Bookshelves Will Continue To Shrink
One of the current barriers to entry for writers/publishers is bookshelf space at bricks and mortar booksellers like Barnes and Noble, Target, Wal-Mart. A romance novel on one of these shelves isn’t competing against thousands (millions?) of romance novels. It is competing against hundreds. That’s a huge advantage for these writers and publishers.
But this shelf space is shrinking. In Canada, we have one large bricks and mortar dedicated-to-books bookseller. This bookseller, ten years ago, offered only books. Today, the same selling space is about 50 percent books / 50 percent gift.
This limited space will be assigned to writers who have proven they can sell books. I’ve asked how I can get my books on physical shelf. The answer I hear from editors, publishers, agents again and again? Hit the best selling lists in eBook format. In other words, be successful sales wise.
What Is Happening In North America WILL Happen In Other Markets
Some writers have told me that they aren’t concerned about the trends of free books and the shrinking physical shelf space in North America because they have healthy sales in Europe.
For now.
My prediction is these markets are merely lagging North America. Amazon exists everywhere. Self publishing exists everywhere. Companies seeking to maximize profits while minimizing efforts exist everywhere.
There Will Still Be Breakout Hits
Does this mean no newer writers will break out, no newer writer will make the transition from giving her stories away for free to being a well paid writer on the lists?
No, of course not. There will still be break out hits. Maybe these stories have a fresh theme or are offered in new formats or have the full support of a powerful publisher or capture the attention of Oprah/Ellen/Kim Kardashian or snag a Hollywood deal or have some other difference I can’t think of right now.
When I evaluate a new idea, I ask myself — “Why would this story break out? What makes this story different from the thousands of stories already on the market?” I’d never read a billionaire vs biker love triangle so I wrote Sinful Rewards. I haven’t seen the idea I’m currently working on.
Breaking out will happen only to the rare few (and we can’t count on this). The rest of us will have to find some other way to feed ourselves, pay the rent and other bills.
Writers And Publishers Will Find Alternate Revenue Streams
Will writers be forced to hold dreaded ‘day jobs’, non-writing paying gigs? Some will choose this option but it isn’t the only one we have. Writers are creative. We’ll find other ways to earn a living from our stories.
We’ve already seen some intriguing alternatives.
Patrons
Some writers are looking to crowdsourcing (like Kickstarter) to fund their next stories. Historically, artists have often relied on the generosity of patrons. The internet now allows writers to rely on the generosity of MANY patrons. We share the premise of the stories we’d like to write. These patrons decide whether or not they wish to support them.
Advertising
We’ve seen the growth of advertising in music. Almost every music video features branded phones or headphones or other products.
I use brand names in my contemporary erotic romances all the time. Bee Googles key words in Sinful Rewards. Hawke borrows a Hummer from the Organization. Right now, I’m giving these brands free advertising. It wouldn’t change my stories if the companies owning these brands paid for the privilege.
(This could be an opportunity for publishers. Companies don’t want thousands of writers contacting them. They might, however, be willing to work with one large publisher representing hundreds of writers. This could create a barrier to entry…which isn’t necessarily a bad thing.)
Some companies are already approaching writers directly. I’ve heard of a couple of Fortune 500 companies that have contracted writers to write romances spotlighting their products (as part of unique marketing campaigns).
Other Ideas
I’m certain there are hundreds, thousands of ideas I haven’t yet thought of. As I mentioned, writers are creative. We’ll figure out how to make the dream of writing full time a reality. There will be failures but there will also be successes. Some of these successes will change romance writing and reading forever.
Romance writers WILL survive. That’s not a prediction. That’s a certainty.
Do you have other/different predictions for romance writing? What are they?
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Bee Carter has been offered everything she has ever dreamed of—a caring, lasting relationship with a handsome, often charming billionaire; the permanent home she’s never had but has always craved; and wealth to buy the designer fashions she loves, support her hard-working mother, and ensure her acceptance by Chicago’s elite.
To obtain what she’s desired for so long, she has to do only two things: Walk away from her best friend, a woman who is destined to betray her … and end her passionate nightly encounters with a certain tattooed biker, a former Marine who can never give her what she needs.
Her answer should be clear, but the heart has a way of complicating even the most straightforward decisions.
Buy Links:
Amazon: http://www.amazon.com/Sinful-Rewards-Billionaires-Bikers-Novella-ebook/dp/B00JZOVYQG
ARe: https://www.allromanceebooks.com/product-sinfulrewards7-1718231-237.html
Avon: http://www.avonromance.com/book/cynthia-sax-sinful-rewards-7
Barnes And Noble: http://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/sinful-rewards-7-cynthia-sax/1119919841
Google: https://play.google.com/store/books/details/Cynthia_Sax_Sinful_Rewards_7?id=CGsOBAAAQBAJ
iTunes: https://itunes.apple.com/us/book/sinful-rewards-7/id870582006
